The Draw for the World Cup Finals, as everyone should know, is not open. The intention is to restrain matches between teams from the same continent. In theory it’s a fair criterion, once the qualifiers already have matches within regions. The directed draw prevents teams that have met in previous rounds will face each other again. It also ensures that WC Finals has a more global, seeking the clash among different soccer styles around the world. How effectively determine who is the best team in the world, where teams always play against the same opponents? So, to avoid this aberration, the draw is directed.
Also, to balance the technical level between groups (and solve several political and market conflicts), FIFA designates the best teams as Group Seeds. “Best teams” are those with the best technical content, the most winning teams, those with the best results. In other words, they are the “Almighties” that will speak louder in the backstage. For many interests, it would be bad if these "giants" were induced to face each other already in the group stage. So then, the draw is also directed by this technical criterion.
However, the rank system used to measure who are the "best" is target of much criticism and discussions around the world. This is due to some ignorance of the public regarding the method of rating. A formula much less complex and obscure than it propagates around. But how to calculate these rates? What results are taken into account at all?
Since 1994, FIFA uses the same seeding formula ever. Across the time there were few changes, for example in regard to the weight given to older results. In 2006, the seeding formula used was basically the following:
1. Take the results of the last two WC finals earlier (currently, 2006 and 2002). The world champion earns 32 pts, runners-up 31, third-places 30, and so on until the worst team that was in the playoffs stage (16th), who earns 17 pts. Teams that did not leave the group stage earn 8 or 9 pts, depending on its campaigns; and who don't even has qualified, don't earn any points. The results of the last World Cup have weight doubled, while penultimate was single-weighted. Finally, we calculate the weighted average for each team. These partial results will be merged with another average. Fractionation in decimal is allowed.
2. The another average considers the FIFA Rankings in the last three years (period between last and next World Cup), with parity among their weights. This formula uses the ranking of December of each year except the current year, when it uses the month of November. Consider only the performance of the 32 finalists, and whoever has the best ranking among them earns 32 pts, 31 pts the next, and so on until the worst of all related teams earns just 1 point. No matter the absolute ranking, what matters is the ranking only among the finalists. For example, if the worst team is ranked at 32th or 178th, it does not matter: he will earn 1 point anyway.
3. The two averages will be merged. The seven highest averages will indicate the seed teams, regardless of which continent represent. The eighth seed key is always the host country, which means South Africa.
I worked on this estimative. So, I conclude the obvious: the seed keys will be Brazil, Italy, Germany, Argentina, France, England and Spain, after all. All within the line, such as FIFA always wanted ...
PREDICTING THE DYNAMIC OF DRAWING
Chances are the format used in 2006 be maintained, once the distribution of places allows so. Thus we have:
POT #1 (Seeds): Suid-Afrika, Brasil, Argentina, Deutschland, Italia, France, England and España.
> Direction is as follows: South Africa must be head of Group A to play the opening match, the second was drawn in Group B, the third in group C, and so on until the group H.
POT #2 (UEFA): Nederland, Portugal, Hellás, Srbija, Danmark, Helvetia, Slovensko and Slovenija.
> Here, it's impossible avoid clashes between Europeans, since they are more than 8 places for this continent. Thus, the draw will be open, without direction. The first was drawn in Group A, the second in B, thus following up until Group H.
POT #3 (CAF & Conmebol): Cameroun, Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, al-Jazair, Uruguay, Payagua’y and Chile.
> Why join African and South Americans in the same pot? Simple: because the three non-Europeans seeds are precisely arising from these continents. Joining them would smooth the draw dynamics. The first to be drawn, if South American, must compose the group of South Africa. If African, it will placed into a group of Brazil or Argentina, whichever comes first. After setting these three spots, the draw return to their regular order (groups B, C, ..., until H). It may be that FIFA would prefer draw this pot before the UEFA pot, either by logistical or political. Actually, this is the only doubt I still have about the draw.
POT #4 (the rest): USA, México, Honduras, Nihon, Taeguk, Choson, Australia and Aotearoa.
> The leftover teams are in this pot, and there is no need of direction. Hardly the pot will no longer be the last to be drawn, since it has those teams with the least relevance and/or technique in the tournament.
OTHER INFO ABOUT THE FINAL DRAW
The draw also set the matches sequence within each group. Each team gets a number from 1 to 4, which are allocated in a pre-table that defines the intersection of the teams in each group. This is critical as well, once the team who loses their opener often affect its progression over the group stage. It better get weaker opponents in the first round.
The FWC Final Draw is a superb event for more than two hours, with concerts, native culture shows, release of official brands such ball, logo and mascot, and much more entertainment. It will be on Friday, December 4, at 19 hours GMT. The event will be held in Cape Town, and WILL COVER IN REAL TIME here. Do not miss!
The confirmation of this regulation is usually released by FIFA two or three days before the draw. Be aware then, and if I miss some predictions, all of you can charge me. Access also http://www.football-rankings.info/ for more information about seedings and rankings.
Also, to balance the technical level between groups (and solve several political and market conflicts), FIFA designates the best teams as Group Seeds. “Best teams” are those with the best technical content, the most winning teams, those with the best results. In other words, they are the “Almighties” that will speak louder in the backstage. For many interests, it would be bad if these "giants" were induced to face each other already in the group stage. So then, the draw is also directed by this technical criterion.
However, the rank system used to measure who are the "best" is target of much criticism and discussions around the world. This is due to some ignorance of the public regarding the method of rating. A formula much less complex and obscure than it propagates around. But how to calculate these rates? What results are taken into account at all?
Since 1994, FIFA uses the same seeding formula ever. Across the time there were few changes, for example in regard to the weight given to older results. In 2006, the seeding formula used was basically the following:
1. Take the results of the last two WC finals earlier (currently, 2006 and 2002). The world champion earns 32 pts, runners-up 31, third-places 30, and so on until the worst team that was in the playoffs stage (16th), who earns 17 pts. Teams that did not leave the group stage earn 8 or 9 pts, depending on its campaigns; and who don't even has qualified, don't earn any points. The results of the last World Cup have weight doubled, while penultimate was single-weighted. Finally, we calculate the weighted average for each team. These partial results will be merged with another average. Fractionation in decimal is allowed.
2. The another average considers the FIFA Rankings in the last three years (period between last and next World Cup), with parity among their weights. This formula uses the ranking of December of each year except the current year, when it uses the month of November. Consider only the performance of the 32 finalists, and whoever has the best ranking among them earns 32 pts, 31 pts the next, and so on until the worst of all related teams earns just 1 point. No matter the absolute ranking, what matters is the ranking only among the finalists. For example, if the worst team is ranked at 32th or 178th, it does not matter: he will earn 1 point anyway.
3. The two averages will be merged. The seven highest averages will indicate the seed teams, regardless of which continent represent. The eighth seed key is always the host country, which means South Africa.
I worked on this estimative. So, I conclude the obvious: the seed keys will be Brazil, Italy, Germany, Argentina, France, England and Spain, after all. All within the line, such as FIFA always wanted ...
PREDICTING THE DYNAMIC OF DRAWING
Chances are the format used in 2006 be maintained, once the distribution of places allows so. Thus we have:
POT #1 (Seeds): Suid-Afrika, Brasil, Argentina, Deutschland, Italia, France, England and España.
> Direction is as follows: South Africa must be head of Group A to play the opening match, the second was drawn in Group B, the third in group C, and so on until the group H.
POT #2 (UEFA): Nederland, Portugal, Hellás, Srbija, Danmark, Helvetia, Slovensko and Slovenija.
> Here, it's impossible avoid clashes between Europeans, since they are more than 8 places for this continent. Thus, the draw will be open, without direction. The first was drawn in Group A, the second in B, thus following up until Group H.
POT #3 (CAF & Conmebol): Cameroun, Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, al-Jazair, Uruguay, Payagua’y and Chile.
> Why join African and South Americans in the same pot? Simple: because the three non-Europeans seeds are precisely arising from these continents. Joining them would smooth the draw dynamics. The first to be drawn, if South American, must compose the group of South Africa. If African, it will placed into a group of Brazil or Argentina, whichever comes first. After setting these three spots, the draw return to their regular order (groups B, C, ..., until H). It may be that FIFA would prefer draw this pot before the UEFA pot, either by logistical or political. Actually, this is the only doubt I still have about the draw.
POT #4 (the rest): USA, México, Honduras, Nihon, Taeguk, Choson, Australia and Aotearoa.
> The leftover teams are in this pot, and there is no need of direction. Hardly the pot will no longer be the last to be drawn, since it has those teams with the least relevance and/or technique in the tournament.
OTHER INFO ABOUT THE FINAL DRAW
The draw also set the matches sequence within each group. Each team gets a number from 1 to 4, which are allocated in a pre-table that defines the intersection of the teams in each group. This is critical as well, once the team who loses their opener often affect its progression over the group stage. It better get weaker opponents in the first round.
The FWC Final Draw is a superb event for more than two hours, with concerts, native culture shows, release of official brands such ball, logo and mascot, and much more entertainment. It will be on Friday, December 4, at 19 hours GMT. The event will be held in Cape Town, and WILL COVER IN REAL TIME here. Do not miss!
The confirmation of this regulation is usually released by FIFA two or three days before the draw. Be aware then, and if I miss some predictions, all of you can charge me. Access also http://www.football-rankings.info/ for more information about seedings and rankings.
